POLL SHOWS Prime Minister Gaston Browne Preferred Prime Minister
CADRES, The Caribbean Development Research Services, a regionally acclaimed political polling group has announced that their research indicates Prime Minister Gaston Browne is a preferred Prime Minister when pinned against political candidates.
According to the poll, “The survey asked respondents an open-ended question about their preference for a Prime Minister at this time and the responses are presented in Figure 02 below. The majority of respondents (49%) expressed a preference for Prime Minister Gaston Browne, while the second highest number opted for the leader of the UPP, Harold Lovell (26%), while DNA leader Joanne Massiah secured the support of 10% of respondents. Comparatively, PM Browne is poling similarly to 2016 when he also secured 49% of support nationally; however, Lovell has improved marginally from 24% in 2016 to 26% currently.
Joanne Massiah has also remained stable, securing 10% both in 2016 and currently, while former PM Spencer has fallen precipitously from 13% in 2016 to 4% currently, suggesting that UPP supporters are now accepting the fact that he is no longer available for the post.”
The poll also took a comparative analysis of how the electorate may cast their vote if an election is to be called soon.
In their published poll results, CADRES illustrates that “The other major data collected related to the important issue of party support which is effectively the respondents’ indication of how he or she would vote IF an election were called at this time and these data are presented in Figure 03. This demonstrates that 36% of Antiguans polled would have voted for the ABLP, while 24% would have opted for the UPP and 5% for the DNA. Cumulatively some 35% of respondents opted not to answer the question and were classified as “Uncertain Voters”.
The comparative with 2016 is also interesting here since in that poll some 35% of Antiguans opted for the ABLP, while 28% preferred the UPP, suggesting that both the ABLP and UPP have strengthen marginally, with the UPP growing its support by 4% and the ABLP by 1%. The fact that these changes fall within the margin of error of the poll suggest that since 2016 there has effectively been no significant change in either party support or the support for the Prime Ministerial candidates for either party.
The Poll also looked at the respondents concerns for national issues. 27% of the respondents indicated that cost of living was a major national concern which affects them while, Unemployment and Crime shared the second spot at 15%.
The published statistical analysis stated, Against the background of continued speculation about an early election, CADRES conducted a public opinion poll in Antigua between the 2nd and 5th February 2018 in all 16 constituencies of the mainland island. The methodology used to conduct this survey is consistent with others conducted by CADRES in Antigua and Barbuda and would be expected to achieve a margin of error of +/- 5% with respect to the mainland of Antigua. Approximately 800 face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 16 constituencies across Antigua based on a standard interview schedule that sought information on party support, leadership preference and the major national issues.”